## Two meanings of priors, part II: Quantifying uncertainty about model parameters

by Angelika Stefan & Felix Schönbrodt This is the second part of “Two meanings of priors”. The first part explained a first meaning – “priors as subjective probabilities of models”. While the first meaning of priors refers to a global Continue Reading …

## Two meanings of priors, part I: The plausibility of models

by Angelika Stefan & Felix Schönbrodt When reading about Bayesian statistics, you regularly come across terms like “objective priors“, “prior odds”, “prior distribution”, and “normal prior”. However, it may not be intuitively clear that the meaning of “prior” differs in Continue Reading …

## Grades of evidence – A cheat sheet

There are at least three traditions in statistics which work with a kind of likelihood ratios (LRs): the “Bayes factor camp”, the “AIC camp”, and the “likehood camp”. In my experience, unfortunately most people do not have an intuitive understanding Continue Reading …

## What does a Bayes factor feel like?

A Bayes factor (BF) is a statistical index that quantifies the evidence for a hypothesis, compared to an alternative hypothesis (for introductions to Bayes factors, see here, here or here). Although the BF is a continuous measure of evidence, humans Continue Reading …

## Reanalyzing the Schnall/Johnson “cleanliness” data sets: New insights from Bayesian and robust approaches

I want to present a re-analysis of the raw data from two studies that investigated whether physical cleanliness reduces the severity of moral judgments – from the original study (n = 40; Schnall, Benton, & Harvey, 2008), and from a Continue Reading …

## Interactive exploration of a prior’s impact

The probably most frequent criticism of Bayesian statistics sounds something like “It’s all subjective – with the ‘right’ prior, you can get any result you want.”. In order to approach this criticism it has been suggested to do a sensitivity Continue Reading …

## A short taxonomy of Bayes factors

[Update Oct 2014: Due to some changes to the Bayes factor calculator webpage, and as I understand BFs much better now, this post has been updated …] I started to familiarize myself with Bayesian statistics. In this post I’ll show Continue Reading …

## Exploring the robustness of Bayes Factors: A convenient plotting function

One critique frequently heard about Bayesian statistics is the subjectivity of the assumed prior distribution. If one is cherry-picking a prior, of course the posterior can be tweaked, especially when only few data points are at hand. For example, see Continue Reading …