## Two meanings of priors, part II: Quantifying uncertainty about model parameters

by Angelika Stefan & Felix Schönbrodt This is the second part of “Two meanings of priors”. The first part explained a first meaning – “priors as subjective probabilities of models”. While the first meaning of priors refers to a global Continue Reading …

## Two meanings of priors, part I: The plausibility of models

by Angelika Stefan & Felix Schönbrodt When reading about Bayesian statistics, you regularly come across terms like “objective priors“, “prior odds”, “prior distribution”, and “normal prior”. However, it may not be intuitively clear that the meaning of “prior” differs in Continue Reading …

## Introducing the p-hacker app: Train your expert p-hacking skills

[This is a guest post by Ned Bicare, PhD] My dear fellow scientists! “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess.” This aphorism, attributed to Ronald Coase, sometimes has been used in a disrespective manner, as if it was wrong Continue Reading …

## What’s the probability that a significant p-value indicates a true effect?

If the p-value is < .05, then the probability of falsely rejecting the null hypothesis is  <5%, right? That means, a maximum of 5% of all significant results is a false-positive (that’s what we control with the α rate). Well, Continue Reading …

## Grades of evidence – A cheat sheet

There are at least three traditions in statistics which work with a kind of likelihood ratios (LRs): the “Bayes factor camp”, the “AIC camp”, and the “likehood camp”. In my experience, unfortunately most people do not have an intuitive understanding Continue Reading …

## A Compendium of Clean Graphs in R

[This is a guest post by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers and Quentin Gronau introducing the RGraphCompendium. Click here to see the full compendium!] Every data analyst knows that a good graph is worth a thousand words, and perhaps a hundred tables. But Continue Reading …

## What does a Bayes factor feel like?

A Bayes factor (BF) is a statistical index that quantifies the evidence for a hypothesis, compared to an alternative hypothesis (for introductions to Bayes factors, see here, here or here). Although the BF is a continuous measure of evidence, humans Continue Reading …

## In the era of #repligate: What are valid cues for the trustworthiness of a study?

[Update 2015/1/14: I consolidate feedback from Twitter, comments, email, and real life into the main text (StackExchange-style), so that we get a good and improving answer. Thanks to @TonyLFreitas, @PhDefunct, @bahniks, @JoeHilgard, @_r_c_a, @richardmorey, @R__INDEX, the commenters at the end of Continue Reading …